The air cargo market kept cooling in July and there is little evidence of a peak-season boost ahead, data provider Xeneta said in its monthly market update, reported by Air Cargo News on August 6, 2026. Demand was up 4% year on year, capacity was up 1% and the cargo load factor reached 61%. The average spot rate fell to $3.12 per kg from $3.40 per kg a month earlier, although it remains 28% higher than a year ago because of higher fuel surcharges and the Middle East conflict.
Xeneta reads the month-on-month fall, and the slowing of year-on-year rate growth from 41% in May and 38% in June, as signs of a weakening market. Demand growth also narrowed from the 8% recorded in June. Chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw said there had been minimal discussion of charter capacity for the peak. “Very few people are talking about peak season,” he said. Xeneta expects rates to keep easing as the year goes on, although van de Wouw said airlines will resist reducing them as quickly as they went up.
Two trades moved differently. Spot rates from China to Western Europe fell 22% month on month to $4.15 per kg after the European Union introduced a €3 customs duty on low-value parcels, and Xeneta pointed to market reports of freighter capacity being withdrawn from China–Europe e-commerce services. On the transpacific, where AI-related shipments have been rising, spot rates from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America were both 33% above late-February levels, down from 41% and 42% at the end of June.
What it means for shippers
- A softer peak would help importers. If Xeneta’s reading holds, fourth-quarter space should be easier to find than in a typical year. It is a forecast, not a certainty, and Xeneta itself notes the situation in the Middle East is still unclear.
- Transpacific rates are still elevated. Air freight from Asia into the US remains priced about a third above late-February levels. Compare quotes and check their validity dates.
- Re-quote what can wait. Do not hold urgent freight in the hope of a lower rate, but ask for a fresh quote on shipments that can move a week or two later.
- Line up the LAX leg early. Even in a quiet peak, the weeks before the holidays are busy at airport cargo terminals. Book pickup from the airline terminal or container freight station (CFS) as soon as the arrival is confirmed.
Go Trucking Services handles air freight and LAX CFS pickup and delivery for shippers in Greater Los Angeles — see Air Freight and Drayage, or request a quote on the home page.
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Image: Aeroprints.com, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0).
